| 100% | AIRHOLE | 7 | Opening in the ice on a frozen lake, say |
| 52% | ICEFISH | 7 | Sit out on a frozen lake, say |
| 48% | TANS | 4 | Lies in the sun on a beach, say |
| 45% | AIRHOLE | 7 | Opening in the ice |
| 45% | LADY | 4 | "___ in the Lake" (Apple TV+ series based on a Laura Lippman novel) |
| 45% | ERIE | 4 | City on a lake of the same name in the US |
| 44% | CYCLE | 5 | (5/5) Go on a bike ride in the open countryside |
| 43% | SKIDDING | 8 | Slipping on a road in the ice |
| 43% | ICEHUT | 6 | Shed on a frozen lake |
| 43% | ICEBOATS | 8 | Vessels on a frozen lake |
| 43% | ICEHUT | 6 | Fixture on a frozen lake |
| 43% | SPED | 4 | Was caught in a radar trap on the highway, say |
| 43% | ICE | 3 | Top layer on a frozen lake |
| 43% | ICEFISH | 7 | Sit on a frozen lake, maybe |
| 42% | ICEHUT | 6 | Structure for anglers on a frozen lake |
| 42% | GREENER | 7 | Like the grass on the other side, in a saying |
| 41% | UPLOADS | 7 | Puts on a server, say ... or a hint to the circled letters in this puzzle |
| 41% | BART | 4 | He writes on a chalkboard in "The Simpsons" opening sequence |
| 40% | NEXT | 4 | In the on-deck circle, say |
| 40% | WEARWARMCLOTHES | 15 | In the event of a freeze, ... |
| 40% | RESTARTCOMPUTER | 15 | In the event of a freeze, ... |
| 40% | AYE | 3 | With 4-Across, what the pirate said on his 80th birthday, in a dad joke |
| 40% | KEYHOLE | 7 | Opening in the middle of a lock |
| 40% | SLIT | 4 | Opening in the side of a skirt |
| 40% | SKATE | 5 | Glide on a frozen pond, say |
| 40% | INDIANADUNES | 12 | Sandy stretch on the shore of Lake Michigan designated a 40-Across in 2019 (2 wds.) |
| 39% | ERR | 3 | Fail to answer in the form of a question on “Jeopardy!,” say |
| 39% | VENT | 4 | Opening in the back of a suit jacket |
| 39% | JOINTVENTURE | 12 | "My colleagues and I will do some exploratory work on your knee, in a ___," said the rheumatologist |
| 39% | ATSEA | 5 | On a voyage in open water |